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In MN, Franken Approval Soars, But He Still Faces Tough Re-Elect Opposition from Republican Mike McFadden; For Gov, Incumbent Dayton Has Hands Full with Republican Challenger Johnson; Opposition to MNSure Grows

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 1 day ago

In Minnesota, incumbent DFL candidates lead today by 9 points each in contests for Governor and US Senate, according to the latest KSTP-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Al Franken tops 50%, and leads Republican Mike McFadden 51% to 42%. Mark Dayton gets to 49%, and leads Republican Jeff Johnson 49% to 40%. The 11/04/14 election is in 10 weeks.

Governor Dayton’s job approval is Plus 14 today: 51% of registered voters approve of the job Dayton is doing, 37% disapprove. Among Democrats, Dayton’s approval is 8:1. Among Republicans, Dayton’s disapproval is 7:2.

Senator Franken’s job approval is today the highest it has been in 5 years of SurveyUSA measurement. Franken today is at Plus 21: 56% approve of the job he is doing, compared to 35% who disapprove. Change comes from Independents, where for the first time since 2009, Franken’s approval is higher than disapproval, and from Democrats, where Franken’s approval soars to 90%.

Senator Amy Klobuchar’s job approval today is Plus 32, higher than Franken’s, but less newsworthy only because that’s where Klobuchar’s job approval has consistently been since SurveyUSA and KSTP began measuring it in 2007, and because Klobuchar is not up for re-election in 2014.

Barack Obama’s job approval is at 38% today, the 2nd lowest recorded in 11 KSTP measurements going back to Obama’s inauguration. Obama’s disapproval is at 52% today, the 2nd highest recorded in 11 KSTP measurements going back to Obama’s inauguration. When disapproval is subtracted from approval, Obama’s Net Approval is at Minus 14 today.

There is effectively no change in sentiment for the Minnesota House of Representatives. Today, 45% say they will vote for a Republican, unchanged from 2 months ago. 43% say they will vote for a Democrat, up a nominal 1 point from 2 months ago.

The Minnesota state legislature remains under water, as it has going back to 2008. Today: 50% of adults disapprove of the legislature, 27% approve.

3:1 opposition to a new office building for the Minnesota state Senate is largely unchanged over the past 10 weeks: today 66% disapprove of the project, 21% approve.

Disapproval of MN’s health insurance exchange, which is called MNSure, is growing. Today, MNSure is Minus 21, compared to Minus 13 four months ago.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of MN adults 08/19/14 through 08/21/14. Of the adults, 725 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 600 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 midterm general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (78% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (22% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In Kansas, Primary Wins for Gov Brownback and Senator Roberts Do Nothing to Pave Path for Re-Election; ‘SOS’ for Incumbent GOP SOS

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 2 days ago

Despite primary wins 3 weeks ago for both top-ticket incumbent Kansas Republicans – Governor Sam Brownback and U.S. Senator Pat Roberts – and despite Kansas being a reliably Red State, both Brownback and Roberts face tough re-election fights for the 11/04/14 general election, according to the latest exclusive KSN-TV poll, conducted by SurveyUSA.

In the contest for Governor, the Republican ticket of Brownback and Jeff Colyer continue to trail the Democratic ticket of Paul Davis and Jill Docking, consistent with 2 previous KSN polls conducted before the 08/05/14 primary. Today, it’s Davis 48%, Brownback 40%. Brownback holds 70% of the Republican base, compared to Davis, who holds 91% of the Democratic base. Independents break 4:3 Democratic, a troubling sign in a state such as Kansas, where Republicans often count on right-leaning independents to cushion their victory margins. More troubling, moderates break 7:2 against the incumbent, an unusually large margin in any state, in any contested race. Democrat Davis leads in all 3 regions of the state: by 10 points in greater Wichita, by 8 points in greater Kansas City KS, and by 4 points in Greater Topeka. Among men, where Red State Republican incumbents often lead by 10, 15 or 20 points, Brownback trails by 1. Brownback trails in every age group. SurveyUSA’s most recent KSN poll, on 07/22/14, also showed Davis 8 atop Brownback. A 06/23/14 KSN poll showed Davis 6 atop Brownback.

Voters split on which issue is most important in the Governor’s contest: those who say “tax rates” are most important break by 26 points for Brownback. Those who say “education” is most important break by 43 points for Davis.

In the contest for United States Senator, Independent Greg Orman continues to make life difficult for both 3-term Republican Roberts and his Democratic challenger. Today, it’s Roberts 37%, Democrat Chad Taylor 32%, Orman at 20%, and Libertarian Randall Batson at 4%. These results are largely consistent with SurveyUSA’s most recent KSN poll, conducted before the 08/05/14 primary, which also showed Roberts 5 points atop Taylor. In its 3 looks at the 11/04/14 general election, SurveyUSA had Orman at 7% on 06/14/14, at 14% on 07/22/14, and at 20% today. Orman siphons votes across the board. He gets 20% of conservatives, 24% of moderates and 17% of liberals. Roberts holds just 62% of the Republican base. Taylor holds 74% of the Democratic base. 38% of independents, a plurality, vote for Orman, who, among Independents beats both Roberts and Taylor. Some comfort for Roberts: he leads in all 3 regions of the state, though he has less than 40% support in every Kansas corner. Roberts breaks 40% among those with a high-school education, but fails to break 40% among the more educated. Roberts fails to break 40% among any income group.

Voters say the economy is the most important issue in the Senate race. Among voters who choose the economy as most important, Davis leads 4:3. Among voters who say that Obamacare is most important, and among voters who say that Immigration is most important, Roberts leads 2:1.

In the contest for Secretary of State, incumbent Republican Kris Kobach and Democratic challenger Jean Schodorf are tied, 46% each. Kobach leads by 10 points among men. Schodorf leads by 9 points among women, a 19-point gender gap. Kobach holds 81% of the Republican base. Schodorf holds 89% of the Democratic base. Both independents and moderates break for the Democrat. Voters say that immigration is the most important issue in their vote for Secretary of State, and among voters who name immigration as most important, Kobach leads 2:1. Among voters who name voter registration as most important, Kobach leads narrowly. Only among voters who name campaign-finance reform as most important does Schodorf lead. The regional breakdowns are tight: Kobach and Schodorf are tied at 47% each in greater Kansas City KS. The Democrat leads by a nominal 3 points in greater Wichita. The Republican leads by 9 in greater Topeka.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 state of Kansas adults 08/20/14 through 08/23/14. Of the adults, 740 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 560 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed-mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In Taken-For-Granted FL Democratic Primary for Governor, The Outcome is All-But-Certain

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 4 days ago

Democrat Charlie Crist today defeats fellow Democrat Nan Rich 4:1 in a Democratic Primary for Governor of Florida, according to an exclusive WFLA-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Crist gets 76% today, Rich 19%. Crist is at or above 70% in every region of the state. The survey of 414 likely Democratic Primary voters was conducted 08/19/14 through 08/21/14. Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents were included.

With Libertarian Wyllie on the Ballot in Florida, Republican Scott Now Leads Democrat Crist by 3

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 9 days ago

In this 10th tracking poll for WFLA-TV in Tampa, SurveyUSA adds the name of Libertarian Adrian Wyllie to the “who would you vote for” question, and finds the results largely consistent with previous releases, where survey respondents could select an option for “some other candidate” to express support for Wyllie.

Today, it’s incumbent Republican Rick Scott 44%, Democratic challenger Charlie Crist 41%, Wyllie 4%. Wyllie appears to take ever-so-slightly more votes from Scott than from Crist, an analysis of the results reveals. That’s because in 8 out of the 9 previous WFLA-TV tracking polls, Scott has led among independent voters, but today, with Wyllie siphoning off 12% of the independents, Crist leads among independents 37% to 30%.

2 weeks ago, Scott led by 2 points, today by 3. Crist suffers from an apparent weakening of his support in Southeast Florida (which includes Miami and Fort Lauderdale). Previously, Crist had led in the Southeast by as many as 25 points, and most recently by 18 points, but today leads there by just 5. In Central FL, often a battleground, Scott today leads by 8. Crist today leads by 5 among voters under age 50; Scott today leads by 7 among voters age 50+. Scott leads by 3 among men and leads by 3 among women.

Scott holds 79% of the Republican base. Crist holds 76% of the Democratic base. Conservatives, as expected, break 8:1 for Scott. Liberals, as expected, break 8:1 for Crist. Moderates, a critical swing group, break for Crist 52% to 29%.

Looking ahead to the 2016 presidential election, Democrat Hillary Clinton keeps Florida’s critical 29 electoral college votes blue if she is opposed by a resurrected Mitt Romney. But Romney turns Florida red if he is opposed by Democrat Joe Biden. This is consistent with previous WFLA-TV polling, which shows that Clinton defeats each and every high-profile Republican in an election today, holding the state for the Democrats, but Biden loses to each and every high-profile Republican today. 270 electoral college votes are needed to win the White House; Florida alone accounts for 11% of the total needed.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents are included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 adults 08/15/14 through 08/18/14. Of the adults, 852 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 564 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. In this release, cell-phone respondents favor Crist by 11 points. Landline respondents favor Scott by 7 points. You must credit WFLA-TV if you air, cite or publish these results in whole or in part.

11 Weeks Till GA Votes are Counted, Republicans Positioned to ‘Run the Table’ in Top 6 Statewide Contests; Will Libertarians Force Runoffs?

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 9 days ago

2 months till early voting begins and 11 weeks until votes are counted, Georgia Republicans lead in races for US Senator, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General and School Superintendent, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WXIA-TV, the Gannett-owned station in Atlanta. In Georgia, a winning candidate needs 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff, which this election would be 12/02/14 for statewide contests and 01/06/15 for the US Senate contest.

In an election today for US Senator, to fill an open seat vacated by Saxby Chambliss, Republican David Perdue defeats Democrat Michelle Nunn 50% to 41%. (Michelle is Sam Nunn’s daughter.) Libertarian Amanda Swafford gets 3% today. 6% are undecided. Perdue’s lead comes entirely from men, where he leads by 19 points. Atlanta votes Democratic. Northwest GA votes 2:1 Republican. South and East GA votes 5:4 Republican. The contest has national ramifications; Republicans need to hold the seat to have a chance to capture control of the U.S. Senate in the next Congress.

In an election today for Governor, incumbent Republican Nathan Deal defeats Democratic challenger Jason Carter 48% to 39%. (Jason is the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter.) Libertarian Andrew Hunt gets 4% today. 8% are undecided. Deal holds 83% of the Republican base. Carter holds 82% of the Democratic base. Independents break sharply Republican. Moderates provide some but not presently enough support for Carter to catch Deal. Libertarian Hunt takes more votes from the Republican Deal than he does from the Democrat Carter.

In an election today for Lieutenant Governor, incumbent Republican Casey Cagle defeats Democratic challenger Connie Stokes, 52% to 36%. Cagle holds 90% of the Republican base.

In an election today for Secretary of State, incumbent Republican Brian Kemp defeats Democratic challenger Doreen Carter 53% to 36%. Carter trails by 9 points among women.

In an election today for Attorney General, incumbent Republican Sam Olens defeats Democratic challenger Greg Hecht, 49% to 36%. Hecht has a 5-point advantage among lower-income voters, but he is overpowered by Olens among middle-income and upper-income voters.

In an election today for State School Superintendent, Republican Richard Woods defeats Democrat Valarie Wilson 51% to 39%. Among voters who support the “Common Core” school standards, the Democrat Wilson leads 2:1. Among those who oppose Common Core, the Republican Woods leads 6:1.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,100 state of Georgia adults 08/14/14 through 08/17/14. Of the adults, 953 were registered to vote. Of those registered to vote, 560 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone, or other portable device.

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 22 days ago

Florida Teeter-Totter Tips Back Towards Scott, As News Novelty of Crist’s Running Mate Announcement Wears Off

SurveyUSA Breaking News - 23 days ago

3 months till votes are counted in the 2014 election for Governor of Florida, incumbent Republican Rick Scott is a nominal 2 points atop Democratic challenger Charlie Crist, according to WFLA-TV’s latest tracking poll, conducted by SurveyUSA.

Scott is at 45% today, Crist is at 43%. Compared to a SurveyUSA WFLA-TV tracking poll 2 weeks ago, which was conducted during a time of positive news coverage for Crist, Scott is up 5, Crist is down 3.

Scott reaches the 50% support level among male voters today, the 1st time he has done so in 9 tracking polls going back to 04/15/14. Scott reaches 54% support among seniors, his highest support to date among voters age 65+. Independents today prefer Scott by 12 points. Moderates today prefer Crist by 21 points. Scott holds 81% of Republicans, 80% of conservatives. Crist holds 78% of Democrats, 76% of liberals.

Looking ahead to the election for President in the state of Florida in 2016, in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups today: Hillary Clinton defeats Rick Perry 50% to 40%. Perry and Joe Biden duel to an effective draw, 44% to 43%.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 state of Florida adults 07/31/14 through 08/04/14. Of the adults, 859 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 576 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (75% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or electronic device.

Pendulum in KY Senate Race Swings Ever-So-Slightly To McConnell — With Or Without Libertarian Patterson on the Ballot

SurveyUSA Operations - 29 days ago

Kentucky icon Mitch McConnell leads Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes by a nominal 2 points today, both in a head-to-head contest that excludes Libertarian David Patterson, and in a 3-way contest that explicitly includes Patterson. In a 2-person race, it’s McConnell 47%, Grimes 45%. In a 3-person race, it’s McConnell 41%, Grimes 39%, Patterson 7%.

This latest Bluegrass Poll, conducted for the Louisville Courier-Journal, the Lexington Herald-Leader, WHAS-TV and WKYT-TV, the 3rd Bluegrass Poll of 2014, is the most favorable yet to the U.S. Senate Minority Leader. A survey in February showed Grimes ahead by 4 points. A survey in May showed Grimes ahead by a nominal 1 point. Neither of the previous 2 polls explicitly mentioned the Libertarian candidate. It is not fair to say, from these numbers, that Patterson hurts one candidate more than the other. But it is fair to say that Patterson throws a wrench into the mix: with his name included in the poll question, the number of undecided voters increases from 8% to 13%. Beyond the number who say they are undecided, 1 in 4 voters say they might change their mind before the 11/04/14 election.

McConnell’s favorability is up, from 29% ten weeks ago to 36% today. In fact, McConnell’s favorability today is exactly the same as Grimes’s, 36%. The difference is: McConnell’s unfavorability today is 10 percentage points higher than Grimes, 43% to 33%. As a point of reference, President Barack Obama’s favorability number in Kentucky is 28% today.

3 key issues highlight how Kentucky sees the candidates: Voters by a narrow margin say that McConnell will do a better job balancing the state’s coal interests with the need for cleaner air. Voters by a narrow margin say that Grimes will do a better at creating jobs. Voters split evenly on which candidate will keep Medicare stable.

Kentucky by 48% to 40% says that Republicans would do a better job than Democrats controlling the U.S. Senate. Whether McConnell is re-elected to a 6th term will go a long way toward determining which party does have control of the Senate in the next Congress.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Kentucky adults 07/18/14 through 07/23/14. Of the adults, 714 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 604 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 election for U.S. Senate. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

In KS, Pat Roberts’ Primary Lead Erodes, and Roberts’ November Prospects Are Complicated by Independent Orman; For Governor, Democratic Davis-Docking Ticket, Newly Backed by High Profile KS Republicans, Remains in Driver’s Seat

SurveyUSA Operations - 35 days ago

Kansas Incumbent Republican Pat Roberts, hoping to sail to re-election to his fourth term in the US Senate, finds himself no longer able to take for granted the 08/05/14 Republican Primary, and, should he survive the primary, no longer able to guarantee a win in the November general election, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for KSN-TV in Wichita.

Roberts today leads conservative primary challenger Milton Wolf by 20 points. That’s substantial, but down from the 33-point lead that Roberts had 1 month ago, when SurveyUSA last polled this contest. There is little movement among conservative voters, where you might expect to find it. There is movement among moderates, where Wolf has halved Roberts lead poll-on-poll. There is also movement among voters age 50 to 64, where Roberts had led by 31 points, now 8.

Assuming Roberts dispatches Wolf in the primary, Roberts’ life is then complicated by Independent Greg Orman, who today takes 14% of the vote in a hypothetical general election match-up. 3 months till early voting in the 11/04/14 election begins, it’s Roberts 38%, Democrat Chad Taylor 33%, Orman at 14%, and Libertarian Randall Batson at 4%. Roberts holds just 59% of the Republican base. Orman gets 30% of the vote among Independents. Orman takes twice as many Republican votes (13%) as he takes Democratic votes (6%). Roberts is above 50% only in rural Western KS. He is at 43% in greater Wichita, 36% in greater Kansas City, and 33% in Eastern KS.

For Governor, Sam Brownback’s Kansas Experiment is slowly coming into the national spotlight. Today, in a hypothetical head-to-head-to-head, the incumbent Republican ticket of Brownback and Jeff Colyer trails the Democratic challenger ticket of Paul Davis and Jill Docking, 48% to 40%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll conducted 1 month ago, Brownback is down 1 point, Davis is up 1 point. The governor’s race crosstabs reveal: the older you are, the less you like Sam Brownback. He trails by 20 points among seniors, trails by 13 points among those age 50 to 64. Only among voters under age 50 does Brownback have a nominal advantage. Among voters who say the most important issue in the Governor’s election is education funding, Davis-Docking lead 4:1. Among voters who say the most important issue in the Governor’s election is tax rates, Brownback-Colyer lead 5:3. Brownback holds 60% of the Republican base, compared to Davis, who holds 89% of the Democratic base. Independents break for the Democrat by 21 points – but, it’s important to point out that the Libertarian ticket of Keen Umbehr and Josh Umbehr takes 13% of Independent votes.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,400 state of Kansas adults 07/17/14 through 07/22/14. Of the adults, 2,079 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 691 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 08/05/14 Republican Primary, 322 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 08/05/14 Democratic Primary. 1,208 voters were determined to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 General Election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a survey on their laptop, tablet, smartphone or other electronic device.

In KS-04, Men Take Fresh Look At Challenger Tiahrt, Who Draws Closer to Incumbent Pompeo in Fast-Approaching GOP Primary

SurveyUSA Operations - 36 days ago

2 weeks until votes are counted in the 08/05/14 Republican Primary in Kansas’ 4th Congressional District, with early voting underway, former Congressman Todd Tiahrt has momentum, and is closing on incumbent Mike Pompeo, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for KSN-TV in Wichita.

When SurveyUSA first looked at the contest 5 weeks ago, Tiahrt had just announced his intention to jump into the race. Back then, SurveyUSA found Pompeo ahead by 17 points. Fast forward to today, with the campaign in full swing: SurveyUSA finds Pompeo ahead by just 7 points, 46% to 39%. Poll-on-poll, Pompeo is down 5 points, Tiahrt is up 5 points.

What will happen over the final 2 weeks of the campaign? Is it safe to draw a straight line extending SurveyUSA’s interactive tracking graph and say that Tiahrt will catch Pompeo by Primary Day? That’s one plausible scenario. Can you look at today’s data and say that Tiahrt has peaked, and this is the closest he will ever draw to Pompeo. That’s another plausible scenario. The answer today is ultimately unknowable. Only 2 weeks from now, in retrospect, will we know for sure the significance of today’s numbers. To state the obvious: voter turnout will decide who gets the 08/05/14 nomination, and in turn who wins the seat, in the general election on 11/04/14.

Where is there movement poll-on-poll?

Among men, Pompeo had led by 19 points, today leads by 3 points, a 16-point swing to Tiahrt.
Among voters with a high-school education, Pompeo had led by 28, now by 1, a 27-point swing to Tiahrt.
Among conservatives, Pompeo had led by 27, now by 15, a 12-point swing to Tiahrt.
Among lower-income voters, Pompeo had led by 6, now trails Tiahrt by 2, an 8-point swing to Tiahrt.
Among voters under the age of 50, Pompeo had led by 15 points, now leads by 6, a 9-point swing to Tiahrt.

Against this backdrop, it is important to remember that although Tiahrt appears to have momentum, Pompeo still leads. Which candidate succeeds in getting his voters to return an early ballot, and which candidate succeeds in getting his Primary Day voters to the polls on 08/05/14, will ultimately emerge victorious.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research, which was conducted 100% by telephone. SurveyUSA interviewed 900 registered voters from Kansas’ 4th Congressional District 07/17/14 through 07/21/14, using Registration Based Sample (RBS), which is also known as Voter List Sample, purchased from Aristotle in Washington DC. To qualify for inclusion, a household needed to have voted in at least one previous Congressional primary. Of the 900 registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 671 were likely to vote in the 08/05/14 Primary. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (also known as: cell-phone respondents), were called on their cell phones, by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, conducted the interview, and remained on the line until the completion of the interview. You must credit KSN-TV if you cite these results.

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