AL
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/28/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/31/2004
Capital
Survey
10/15/2004
Mobile
Register
10/3/2004
In Alphabetical Order, By State.
No SurveyUSA polls omitted.
This is an exhaustive accounting of every election contest polled by SurveyUSA during 2004,
and every known competing poll from final month of compaign. No competing polls omitted.
* = Incumbent
Current as of 11 am ET 11/24/04.
Actual returns are rounded to whole numbers, after actual margin is calculated.
Bush (R)* 63% 57% 53% 56% 59%
Kerry (D) 37% 39% 42% 32% 22%
1st Place minus 2nd 26 18 11 24 37
 
Survey USA: 636 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/27
Rasmussen Reports: Universe: n/a, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: n/a, Conducted: 10/17 - 10/30
Capital Survey: 546 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 11%, Conducted: 10/12 - 10/14
Mobile Register: 519 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.3%, Undecided: 17%, Conducted: 09/27 - 09/30
 
AR
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/30/2004
U of
Arkansas
10/27/2004
Opinion Research
Associates
10/24/2004
Zogby
Poll
10/14/2004
Bush (R)* 54% 51% 51% 47% 48% 46%
Kerry (D) 45% 46% 43% 40% 48% 45%
1st Place minus 2nd 9 5 8 7 0 1
 
SurveyUSA: 550 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.3%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/31 - 11/01
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/26 - 10/29
U of Arkansas: 758 Registered Voters, MOE: 3.6%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/05 - 10/20
Opinion Research Associates: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/18 - 10/20
Zogby Poll: 503 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/10 - 10/11
         
AR
U.S. Senate
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Opinion Research
Associates
10/21/2004
Zogby
Poll
10/12/2004
Lincoln (D) 56% 53% 66% 60%
Holt (R) 44% 43% 30% 32%
1st Place minus 2nd 12 10 36 28
 
SurveyUSA: 550 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.3%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/31-11/1
Opinion Research Associates: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/18-10/20
Zogby Poll: 503 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/10-10/11
 
AR
U.S. House
2nd Cong District
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/28/2004
Snyder (D) 58% 60%
Parks (R) 42% 36%
1st Place minus 2nd 16 24
 
SurveyUSA: 583 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/25-10/27
 
AZ
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/27/2004
KAET/
ASU
10/26/2004
Arizona
Republic
10/21/2004
NAU
Poll
10/13/2004
Bush (R)* 55% 56% 50% 47% 47% 49%
Kerry (D) 44% 41% 45% 42% 40% 44%
1st Place minus 2nd 11 15 5 5 7 5
 
SurveyUSA: 599 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/28 - 10/30
Rasmussen Reports: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/26
KAET/ASU: 573 Registered Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 10/19 - 10/21
Arizona Republic: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 13%, Conducted: 10/18 - 10/19
NAU Poll: 401 Likely Voters, MOE: 5.0%, Undecided: 5%, Conducted: 10/07 - 10/11
 
CA
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/31/2004
Field
Poll
10/29/2004
LA
Times
10/21/2004
Strategic
Vision
10/21/2004
PPIC
Institute
10/18/2004
SJSU
Poll
10/6/2004
Kerry (D) 54% 54% 53% 49% 58% 50% 51% 48%
Bush (R)* 44% 43% 43% 42% 40% 41% 39% 42%
1st Place minus 2nd 10 11 10 7 18 9 12 6
 
SurveyUSA: 767 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.6%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/29 - 10/31
Rasmussen Reports: MOE: 4.5%, Conducted: 10/24 - 10/30
Field Poll: 1086 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.3%, Undecided: 9%, Conducted: 10/21 - 10/27
LA Times: 925 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/14 - 10/18
Strategic Vision: 801 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 9%, Conducted: 10/16 - 10/18
PPIC Institute: 1170 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/10 - 10/17
SJSU Poll: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 09/27 - 10/01
 
CA
U.S. Senate
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Field
Poll
10/29/2004
Strategic
Vision
10/20/2004
LA Times
Poll
10/19/2004
PPIC
Institute
10/18/2004
Boxer (D) 58% 57% 53% 53% 55% 53%
Jones (R) 38% 36% 34% 36% 33% 35%
1st Place minus 2nd 20 21 19 17 22 18
 
SurveyUSA: 767 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.6%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/29-10/31
Field Poll: 1086 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.2%, Undecided: 9%, Conducted: 10/21-10/27
Strategic Vision: 801 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 8%, Conducted: 10/16-10/18
LA Times Poll: 925 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 9%, Conducted: 10/14-10/18
PPIC Institute: 170 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 10/10-10/17
         
CA
Mayor
San Diego
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/28/2004
CERC
11/1/04
PRM
Consulting
11/1/04
Murphy 35% 31% 27% 32%
Frye 34% 29% 30% 29%
Roberts 31% 30% 27% 37%
1st Place minus 2nd 1 2 -3 3
         
SurveyUSA: 522 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.4%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/25-10/27/04
CERC: 402 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.7%, Undecided: 15%, Conducted: 10/30-10/31/04
PRM Consulting: Universe: n/a, MOE: n/a, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: n/a
 
CO
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Zogby
Poll
11/1/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/30/2004
POS
10/30/2004
Fairbank
Maslin
10/26/2004
Circuli
Associates
10/22/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/20/2004
CNN/USAT/
Gallup Poll
10/18/2004
Bush (R)* 52% 50% 49% 50% 51% 48% 48% 50% 51%
Kerry (D) 47% 47% 47% 43% 42% 48% 42% 45% 45%
1st Place minus 2nd 5 3 2 7 9 0 6 5 6
 
SurveyUSA: 705 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.8%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/30 - 11/01
Zogby Poll: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/29 - 11/01
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 5%, Conducted: 10/26 - 10/29
POS: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.3%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/27
Fairbank Maslin: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/20 - 10/21
Circuli Associates: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/15 - 10/19
Rasmussen Reports: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/18
CNN/USAT/Gallup Poll: 666 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/14 - 10/17
 
CO
U.S. Senate
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
Survey
USA
11/1/2001
Zogby
Poll
10/31/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/29/2004
POS
10/29/2004
Ciruli
Associates
10/22/2004
Fairbank
Maslin
10/22/2004
Global
Strategy
10/20/2004
Harstad
 Research
10/19/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/19/2004
Gallup
Poll
10/18/2004
K. Salazar (D) 51% 51% 52% 46% 48% 47% 50% 49% 49% 50% 49%
Coors (R) 47% 47% 44% 46% 42% 43% 45% 43% 43% 46% 48%
1st Place minus 2nd 4 4 8 0 6 4 5 6 6 4 1
 
SurveyUSA: 701 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.8%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/30-11/1
Zogby Poll: 602 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/28-10/31
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/25-10/27
POS: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.3%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/25-10/27
Ciruli Associates: 600 Registered Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 10/15-10/19
Fairbank Maslin: 400 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.9%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/20-10/21
Global Strategy: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 8%, Conducted: 10/17/10/19
Harstad Research: 515 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.6%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/17-10/18
Rasmussen Reports: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/18
Gallup Poll: 666 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/14-10/17
 
CO
Amendment 35
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/29/2004
POS
10/29/2004
Yes 61% 61% 58% 59%
No 39% 38% 35% 39%
1st Place minus 2nd 21 23 23 20
 
SurveyUSA: 615 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/28-10/30/04
Mason Dixon: 625 n/a, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: n/a
POS: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.3%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/25-10/27/04
 
CO
Amendment 36
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/29/2004
No 65% 65% 55%
Yes 35% 32% 31%
1st Place minus 2nd 30 33 24
 
SurveyUSA: 583 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.4%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/28-10/30/04
Mason Dixon: 625 n/a, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 14%, Conducted: n/a
 
CO
U.S. House
3rd Cong District
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/28/2004
Fairbank
Maslin
10/22/2004
Anzalone-Liszt
Research
10/1/2004
J. Salazar (D) 51% 48% 47% 48%
Walcher (R) 47% 45% 30% 33%
1st Place minus 2nd 4 3 17 15
 
SurveyUSA: 630 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/25-10/27
Fairbank Maslin: 259 Likely Voters, MOE: 6.2%, Undecided: 20%, Conducted: 10/20-10/21
Anzalone-Liszt Research: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.4%, Undecided: 19%, Conducted: 9/28-9/30
 
FL
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
ARG
Poll
11/1/2004
Insider
Advantage
11/1/2004
Opinion Dynamics (FOX)
11/1/2004
Quinnipiac
University
11/1/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
11/1/2004
Strategic
Vision
11/1/2004
Zogby
Poll
11/1/2004
CNN/USAT/
Gallup Poll
10/31/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/30/2004
Hamilton
Beattie
10/29/2004
NY Times
(no CBS)
10/29/2004
LA Times
Poll
10/28/2004
Research
2000
10/23/2004
Schroth
Associates
10/23/2004
U Northern
Florida
10/20/2004
Wash Post
(no ABC)
10/16/2004
HB&S
Poll
10/07/2004
Bush (R)* 52% 49% 48% 48% 44% 51% 50% 50% 48% 47% 49% 48% 47% 51% 47% 46% 44% 48% 47%
Kerry (D) 47% 48% 50% 48% 49% 43% 47% 46% 48% 50% 45% 46% 48% 43% 48% 46% 45% 48% 49%
1st Place minus 2nd 5 1 -2 0 -5 8 3 4 0 -3 4 2 -1 8 -1 0 -1 0 -2
 
SurveyUSA: 742 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.7%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/29 - 10/31
ARG Poll: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/30 - 11/01
Insider Advantage: 400 Likely Voters, MOE: 5.0%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/29 - 10/31
Opinion Dynamics (FOX): 700 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.7%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/30 - 10/31
Quinnipiac University: 1098 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/27 - 10/31
Rasmussen Reports: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/31
Strategic Vision: 801 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/29 - 10/31
Zogby Poll: 601 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/29 - 11/01
CNN/USAT/Gallup Poll: 1138 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/28 - 10/30
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 5%, Conducted: 10/26 - 10/29
Hamilton Beattie: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/24 - 10/27
NY Times (no CBS): 802 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/23 - 10/27
LA Times Poll: 510 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/22 - 10/26
Research 2000: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/18 - 10/21
Schroth Associates: 800 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.5%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/19 - 10/21
U Northern Florida: 641 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/10 - 10/15
Wash Post (no ABC): 655 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/04 - 10/10
HB & S Poll: 800 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.5%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/01 - 10/04
 
FL
U.S. Senate
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Gallup
Poll
11/1/2004
Insider
Advantage
11/1/2004
Opinion
Dynamics
11/1/2004
Quinnipiac
U
11/1/2004
Strategic
Vision
11/1/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/30/2004
NY Times
(no CBS)
10/30/2004
Hamilton
Beattie
10/28/2004
Global
Strategy
10/27/2004
Zogby
Poll
10/26/2004
Research
2000
10/25/2004
Schroth
Associates
10/25/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/23/2004
U Northern
FL
10/16/2004
Wash Post
(no ABC)
10/16/2004
Martinez (R) 49% 48% 46% 46% 41% 49% 49% 47% 44% 46% 43% 46% 48% 44% 47% 35% 47%
Castor (D) 48% 48% 47% 47% 47% 44% 45% 46% 47% 46% 47% 46% 48% 44% 48% 38% 47%
1st Place minus 2nd 1 0 -1 -1 -6 5 4 1 -3 0 -4 0 0 0 -1 -3 0
 
SurveyUSA: 742 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.7%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/29-10/31
Gallup Poll: 1521 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/28-10/31
Insider Advantage: 400 Likely Voters, MOE: 5.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/29-10/31
Opinion Dynamics: 700 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.7%, Undecided: 12%, Conducted: 10/30-10/31
Quinnipiac U: 1098 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/27-10/31
Strategic Vision: 801 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/29-10/31
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/26-10/27
NY Times (no CBS): 802 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 10/23-10/27
Hamilton Beattie: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/24-10/27
Global Strategy: 700 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.7%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 10/24-10/26
Zogby Poll: 599 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/28-10/31
Research 2000: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/18-10/21
Schroth Associates: 800 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.5%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 10/19-10/21
Rasmussen Reports: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: n/a, Conducted: 10/21
U Northern FL: 614 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 24%, Conducted: 10/10-10/15
Wash Post (no ABC): 665 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 8/4-8/10
 
FL
Palm Beach County
Sheriff Runoff
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/27/2004
Bradshaw 57% 49%
Eggleston 43% 42%
1st Place minus 2nd 14 7
 
SurveyUSA: 707 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.8%, Undecided: 9%, Conducted: 10/24-10/26/04
 
GA
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Strategic
Vision
11/1/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/31/2004
Zogby/
AJC
10/30/2004
Bush (R)* 58% 55% 55% 54% 52%
Kerry (D) 41% 43% 41% 39% 42%
1st Place minus 2nd 17 12 14 15 10
 
SurveyUSA: 628 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/28 - 10/30
Strategic Vision: 801 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/29 - 10/31
Rasmussen Reports: MOE: 4.5%, Conducted: 10/17 - 10/30
Zogby/AJC: 501 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/27 - 10/29
 
GA
U.S. Senate
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Strategic
Vision
11/1/2004
Zogby
Poll
10/30/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/11/2004
Isakson (R) 58% 56% 55% 49% 54%
Majette (D) 40% 40% 40% 36% 42%
1st Place minus 2nd 18 16 15 13 12
 
SurveyUSA: 628 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/28-10/30
Strategic Vision: 801 Registered Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/29-10/31
Zogby Poll: 501 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 11%, Conducted: 10/27-10/29
Rasmussen Reports: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/6
 
IA
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Opinion Dynamics (FOX)
11/01/2004
Strategic
Vision
11/1/2004
Zogby
Poll
11/1/2004
CNN/USAT/Gallup Poll
10/31/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/30/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/30/2004
Selzer
& Co
10/30/2004
ARG
Poll
10/28/2004
Research
2000
10/28/2004
Central
Surveys
10/23/2004
Market Shares
(Chi Trib)
10/12/2004
Harstead
Research
10/06/2004
U
MN
10/06/2004
Bush (R)* 50% 47% 48% 49% 45% 48% 49% 48% 45% 48% 49% 45% 47% 46% 46%
Kerry (D) 49% 50% 44% 46% 50% 46% 44% 48% 48% 47% 48% 46% 45% 43% 47%
1st Place minus 2nd 1 -3 4 3 -5 2 5 0 -3 1 1 -1 2 3 -1
 
SurveyUSA: 519 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.4%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/31 - 11/01
Opinion Dynamics (FOX): 700 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.7%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/30 - 10/31
Strategic Vision: 801 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/29 - 10/31
Zogby Poll: 601 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/29 - 11/01
CNN/USAT/Gallup Poll: 649 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/27 - 10/30
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/26 - 10/29
Rasmussen Reports: MOE: 4.5%, Conducted: 10/16 - 10/29
Selzer & Co: 806 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.5%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/29
ARG Poll: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/27
Research 2000: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/27
Central Surveys: 502 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 8%, Conducted: 10/14 - 10/19
Market Shares (Chi Trib): 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.4%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/08 - 10/11
Harstead Research: 717 Registered Voters, MOE: 3.7%, Undecided: 8%, Conducted: 10/03 - 10/04
U MN: 599 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 09/27 - 10/03
 
IL
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/30/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/31/2004
Research
2000
10/29/2004
Market Shares
(Chi Trib/WGN)
10/24/2004
Kerry (D) 55% 54% 51% 54% 50%
Bush (R)* 45% 42% 43% 40% 42%
1st Place minus 2nd 10 12 8 14 8
 
SurveyUSA: 665 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.9%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/27 - 10/29
Rasmussen Reports: MOE: 4.5%, Conducted: 10/17 - 10/30
Research 2000: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/27 - 10/28
Market Shares (Chi Trib/WGN): 700 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/16 - 10/19
 
IL
U.S. Senate
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/30/2004
McCullough
Research
11/1/2004
Research
2000
10/29/2004
Richard
Day
10/25/2004
Market
Shares
10/24/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/7/2004
Obama (D) 70% 66% 70% 67% 70% 66% 64%
Keyes (R) 27% 27% 24% 25% 20% 19% 20%
1st Place minus 2nd 43 39 46 42 50 47 44
 
SurveyUSA: 665 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.9%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/27-10/29
McCullough Research: 1200 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.2%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/28-10/31
Research 2000: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/27-10/28
Richard Day: 828 Registered Voters, MOE: 0.0%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 10/15-10/20
Market Shares: 700 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 9%, Conducted: 10/16-10/19
Rasmussen Reports: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/5
IN
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/30/2004
Research
2000
10/26/2004
Indianapolis
Star
10/6/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/1/2004
Bush (R)* 60% 58% 56% 61% 53%
Kerry (D) 39% 39% 40% 33% 40%
1st Place minus 2nd 21 19 16 28 13
SurveyUSA: 589 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/27 - 10/29
Research 2000: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/22 - 10/24
Indianapolis Star: 957 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.2%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 09/29 - 10/03
Rasmussen Reports: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: n/a, Undecided: 5%, Conducted: 09/16 - 09/29
IN
Governor
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/30/2004
Selzer
& Co.
10/30/2004
Indiana
U
10/25/2004
Research
2000
10/26/2004
Daniels (R)  53% 52% 48% 48% 48%
Kernan (D)* 45% 44% 42% 42% 45%
1st Place minus 2nd 8 8 6 6 3
SurveyUSA: 587 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/27-10/29
Selzer & Co.: 1002 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.1%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/26-10/29
Indiana U: 421 Likely Voters, MOE: 5.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/12-10/24
Research 2000: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/22-10/24
IN
U.S. Senate
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/30/2004
Research
2000
10/26/2004
Bayh (D) 61% 61% 65%
Scott (R) 37% 34% 31%
1st Place minus 2nd 24 27 34
SurveyUSA: 589 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/27-10/29
Research 2000: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/22-10/24
KS
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/28/2004
KC
Star
10/27/2004
Bush (R)* 62% 60% 59%
Kerry (D) 36% 37% 30%
1st Place minus 2nd 26 23 29
SurveyUSA: 651 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.8%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/27
KC Star: 573 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 9%, Conducted: 10/22 - 10/26
KS
U.S. House
4th Cong District
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/29/2004
Tiahrt (R) 66% 67%
Kinard (D)  31% 27%
1st Place minus 2nd 36 40
SurveyUSA: 661 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.7%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/26-10/28
KS
Sedgwick County
Arena Question 
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/29/2004
CCI
Telecom
10/14/04
No 52% 52% 32%
Yes 48% 47% 36%
1st Place minus 2nd 3 5 -4
SurveyUSA: 432 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.8%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/26-10/28/04
CCI Telecom: Universe: n/a, MOE: n/a, Undecided: n/a, Conducted: n/a
KY
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Courier-Journal
Bluegrass Poll
10/24/2004
Bush (R)* 60% 59% 56%
Kerry (D) 40% 38% 39%
1st Place minus 2nd 20 21 17
SurveyUSA: 636 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/28 - 10/30
Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll: 690 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.7%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/18 - 10/20
KY
U.S. Senate
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Garin Hart
Yang
10/25/2004
Blugrass
Poll
10/24/2004
Bunning (R) 51% 51% 44% 49%
Mongiardo (D) 49% 42% 43% 43%
1st Place minus 2nd 1 9 1 6
SurveyUSA: 636 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/28-10/30
Garin Hart Yang: 502 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.4%, Undecided: 13%, Conducted: 10/22-10/24
Blugrass Poll: 690 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.7%, Undecided: 9%, Conducted: 10/18-10/20
KY
Marriage
Amendment
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Bluegrass
Poll
10/26/2004
Yes 75% 73% 76%
No 25% 25% 18%
1st Place minus 2nd 49 48 58
SurveyUSA: 624 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.6%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/28-10/30/04
Bluegrass Poll: 690 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.7%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/18-10/20/04
KY
U.S. House
3rd Cong District
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/29/2004
Bluegrass
Poll
10/25/2004
Northup (R)* 60% 58% 57%
Miller (D) 38% 37% 33%
1st Place minus 2nd 22 21 24
SurveyUSA: 638 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.9%, Undecided: 5%, Conducted: 10/26-10/28
Bluegrass Poll: 634 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.9%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/21-10/24
MD
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/30/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/31/2004
IPSOS
(no AP)
10/28/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/27/2004
Gonzales
Research
10/8/2004
Kerry (D) 56% 54% 52% 56% 52% 52%
Bush (R)* 43% 43% 44% 39% 41% 42%
1st Place minus 2nd 13 11 8 17 11 10
SurveyUSA: 607 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/27 - 10/29
Rasmussen Reports: MOE: 4.5%, Conducted: 10/17 - 10/30
IPSOS (no AP): 602 Registered Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/26
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/24 - 10/26
Gonzales Research: 809 Registered Voters, MOE: 3.5%, Undecided: 5%, Conducted: 10/01 - 10/05
ME
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Zogby
Poll
10/24/2004
Kerry (D) 53% 52% 50%
Bush (R)* 45% 44% 39%
1st Place minus 2nd 8 8 11
SurveyUSA: 1008 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.2%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/28 - 10/30
Zogby Poll: 402 Likely Voters, MOE: 5.0%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 10/21 - 10/22
ME
Ballot Question 1
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Zogby
Poll
10/24/2004
No 63% 60% 59%
Yes 37% 37% 28%
1st Place minus 2nd 26 23 31
SurveyUSA: 987 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.2%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/28-10/30/04
Zogby Poll: 402 Likely Voters, MOE: 5.0%, Undecided: 13%, Conducted: 10/20-10/21/04
ME
Ballot Question 2
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Zogby
Poll
10/24/2004
No 54% 54% 54%
Yes 46% 44% 37%
1st Place minus 2nd 8 10 17
SurveyUSA: 995 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.2%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/28-10/30/04
Zogby Poll: 402 Likely Voters, MOE: 5.0%, Undecided: 9%, Conducted: 10/20-10/21/04
ME
U.S. House
1st Cong District
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/30/2004
Allen (D) 60% 55%
Summers (R) 40% 39%
1st Place minus 2nd 19 16
SurveyUSA: 652 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.9%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/27-10/29
ME
U.S. House
2nd Cong District
Actual
Returns
11/2/04
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/30/04
Michaud (D) 58% 53%
Hamel (R) 39% 40%
1st Place minus 2nd 19 13
SurveyUSA: 673 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.9%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/27-10/29
MI
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
11/1/2004
Strategic
Vision
11/1/2004
Zogby
Poll
11/1/2004
Mitchell
Research
10/31/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/30/2004
Research
2000
10/28/2004
EPIC
MRA
10/22/2004
Kerry (D) 51% 50% 50% 44% 52% 43% 47% 50% 49%
Bush (R)* 48% 47% 46% 45% 46% 41% 45% 46% 43%
1st Place minus 2nd 3 3 4 -1 6 2 2 4 6
SurveyUSA: 671 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.9%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/28 - 10/30
Rasmussen Reports: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 5.0%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/31
Strategic Vision: 801 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 10/29 - 10/31
Zogby Poll: 601 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/29 - 11/01
Mitchell Research: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 12%, Conducted: 10/26 - 10/28
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/26 - 10/29
Research 2000: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/27
EPIC MRA: 610 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/18 - 10/21
MO
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/31/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/30/2004
KC
Star
10/27/2004
Research
2000
10/26/2004
Bush (R)* 53% 52% 50% 49% 49% 48%
Kerry (D) 46% 47% 45% 44% 45% 45%
1st Place minus 2nd 7 5 5 5 4 3
SurveyUSA: 694 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.8%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/29 - 10/31
Rasmussen Reports: MOE: 4.5%, Conducted: 10/24 - 10/30
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/26 - 10/29
KC Star: 553 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/22 - 10/26
Research 2000: 800 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.5%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/22 - 10/24
MO
Governor
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Research
2000
10/28/2004
Market Research
Institute
10/27/2004
Blunt (R) 51% 47% 48% 47%
McCaskill (D) 48% 47% 46% 46%
1st Place minus 2nd 3 0 2 1
SurveyUSA: 689 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.8%, Undecided: 5%, Conducted: 10/29-10/31
Research 2000: 800 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.5%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/21-10/23
Market Research Institute: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 10/21-10/23
MO
U.S. Senate
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Market Research
Institute
10/27/2004
Research
2000
10/25/2004
Bond (R) 56% 57% 53% 53%
Farmer (D) 43% 38% 36% 36%
1st Place minus 2nd 13 19 17 17
SurveyUSA: 694 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.8%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/29-10/31
Market Research Institute: 553 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 10/22-10/26
Research 2000: 800 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.5%, Undecided: 11%, Conducted: 10/22-10/24
NC
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/31/2004
Research
2000
10/29/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/27/2004
Tel Opinion
Research
10/21/2004
Bush (R)* 56% 53% 53% 51% 52% 48%
Kerry (D) 44% 45% 43% 45% 43% 40%
1st Place minus 2nd 12 8 10 6 9 8
SurveyUSA: 620 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/29 - 10/31
Rasmussen Reports: MOE: 4.5%, Conducted: 10/24 - 10/30
Research 2000: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/24 - 10/26
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/26
Tel Opinion Research: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 8%, Conducted: 10/18 - 10/20
NC
Governor
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/27/2004
Research
2000
10/27/2004
John Locke
Foundation
10/21/2004
Easley (D)* 56% 55% 54% 53% 49%
Ballantine (R)  43% 41% 38% 41% 34%
1st Place minus 2nd 13 14 16 12 15
SurveyUSA: 617 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 5%, Conducted: 10/29-10/31
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 8%, Conducted: 10/25-10/26
Research 2000: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/24-10/26
JLF: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 11%, Conducted: 10/18-10/20
NC
U.S. Senate
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/28/2004
Research
2000
10/28/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/23/2004
Global
Strategy
10/22/2004
John Locke
Foundation
10/21/2004
Burr (R) 52% 50% 46% 47% 49% 44% 43%
Bowles (D) 47% 45% 46% 46% 45% 46% 42%
1st Place minus 2nd 5 5 0 1 4 -2 1
SurveyUSA: 617 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/29-10/31
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 8%, Conducted: 10/25-10/26
Research 2000: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/24-10/26
Rasmussen Reports: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: n/a, Conducted: 10/20
Global Strategy: 800 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 10/19-10/21
John Locke Foundation : 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 8%, Conducted: 10/18-10/20
NJ
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/30/2004
Quinnipiac
U
11/1/2004
Strategic
Vision
11/1/2004
Eagleton-Rutgers
10/31/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/31/2004
Farleigh
Dickinson
10/29/2004
Kerry (D) 53% 54% 48% 42% 45% 53% 47%
Bush (R)* 46% 42% 43% 42% 41% 41% 40%
1st Place minus 2nd 6 12 5 0 4 12 7
SurveyUSA: 749 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.5%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/27 - 10/29
Quinnipiac U: 984 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.1%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/27 - 10/31
Strategic Vision: 801 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 15%, Conducted: 10/29 - 10/31
Eagleton-Rutgers: 740 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.6%, Undecided: 12%, Conducted: 10/27 - 10/29
Rasmussen Reports: 400 Likely Voters, MOE: 5.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/17 - 10/30
Farleigh Dickinson: 549 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 11%, Conducted: 10/21 - 10/28
NV
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Zogby
Poll
11/1/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/30/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/27/2004
Belden
Russonello
10/23/2004
Research
2000
10/23/2004
Bush (R)* 50% 53% 50% 50% 49% 45% 49%
Kerry (D) 48% 45% 45% 44% 47% 41% 47%
1st Place minus 2nd 2 8 5 6 2 4 2
SurveyUSA: 636 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/30 - 11/01
Zogby Poll: 601 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/29 - 11/01
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/26 - 10/29
Rasmussen Reports: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/23
Belden Russonello: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 9%, Conducted: 10/16 - 10/21
Research 2000: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/19 - 10/21
NY
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/29/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/31/2004
Siena
College
10/29/2004
Marist
Institute
10/28/2004
Kerry (D) 58% 57% 54% 52% 56%
Bush (R)* 40% 39% 37% 37% 38%
1st Place minus 2nd 17 18 17 15 18
SurveyUSA: 628 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/26 - 10/28
Rasmussen Reports: MOE: 4.5%, Conducted: 10/24 - 10/30
Siena College: 1062 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 11%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/28
Marist Institute: 636 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 5%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/26
OH
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Opinion Dynamics (FOX)
11/1/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
11/1/2004
Strategic
Vision
11/1/2004
U
Cincinnati
11/1/2004
Zogby
Poll
11/1/2004
CNN/USAT/
Gallup Poll
10/31/2004
Columbus
Dispatch
10/31/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/30/2004
LA Times
Poll
10/28/2004
ARG
Poll
10/26/2004
Scripps
Howard
10/22/2004
ABC News
(no WaPo)
10/19/2004
Market
Shares
10/12/2004
Bush (R)* 51% 49% 50% 50% 47% 50% 49% 46% 50% 48% 44% 47% 46% 47% 45%
Kerry (D) 49% 47% 47% 46% 45% 49% 43% 50% 50% 46% 50% 49% 50% 50% 49%
1st Place minus 2nd 2 2 3 4 2 1 6 -4 0 2 -6 -2 -4 -3 -4
SurveyUSA: 816 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.5%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/29 - 10/31
Opinion Dynamics (FOX): 700 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/30 - 10/31
Rasmussen Reports: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/31
Strategic Vision: 801 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/29 - 10/31
U Cincinnati: 877 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.3%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/27 - 10/31
Zogby Poll: 601 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/29 - 11/01
CNN/USAT/Gallup Poll: 1111 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/28 - 10/31
Columbus Dispatch: 2880 Likely Voters, MOE: 2.0%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/20 - 10/29
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 5%, Conducted: 10/26 - 10/29
LA Times Poll: 585 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/22 - 10/26
ARG Poll: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/23 - 10/25
Scripps Howard: 358 Likely Voters, MOE: 5.3%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/17 - 10/21
ABC News (no WaPo): 789 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.5%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/14 - 10/17
Market Shares: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.4%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/08 - 10/11
OH
U.S. Senate
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Opinion
Dynamics
11/1/2004
U
Cincinnati
11/1/2004
Zogby
Poll
11/1/2004
Columbus
Dispatch
10/30/2004
ABC News
(no WaPo)
10/18/2004
Voinovich (R) 64% 61% 60% 65% 57% 62% 60%
Fingerhut (D) 36% 33% 30% 35% 33% 38% 35%
1st Place minus 2nd 28 28 30 30 24 24 25
SurveyUSA: 816 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.5%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/29-10/31
Opinion Dynamics: 700 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.7%, Undecided: 9%, Conducted: 10/30-10/31
U Cincinnati:  Likely Voters, MOE: 0.0%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/27-10/31
Zogby Poll: 602 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 9%, Conducted: 10/28-10/31
Columbus Dispatch: 2880 Likely Voters, MOE: 2.0%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/20-10/29
ABC News (no WaPo): 789 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.5%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/14-10/17
OK
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Wilson
Research
10/25/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
Bush (R)* 66% 64% 61% 60%
Kerry (D) 34% 34% 28% 36%
1st Place minus 2nd 31 30 33 24
SurveyUSA: 662 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.7%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/28 - 10/30
Wilson Research: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.4%, Undecided: 11%, Conducted: 10/22 - 10/24
Rasmussen Reports: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/20
OK
U.S. Senate
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Sooner
Poll
10/29/2004
Cole, Hargrave
Snodgrass
10/27/2004
Wilson
Research
10/25/2004
Consumer
Logic
10/24/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/23/2004
Global
Strategy
10/21/2004
Coburn (R) 53% 47% 44% 43% 41% 40% 48% 44%
Carson (D) 41% 39% 35% 38% 38% 47% 43% 45%
1st Place minus 2nd 12 8 9 5 3 -7 5 -1
SurveyUSA: 662 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.7%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/28-10/30
Sooner Poll: 498 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.4%, Undecided: 16%, Conducted: 10/27-10/28
Cole, Hargrave Snodgrass: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.3%, Undecided: 14%, Conducted: 10/25-10/26
Wilson Research: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.4%, Undecided: 15%, Conducted: 10/22-10/24
Consumer Logic: 753 Registered Voters, MOE: 3.5%, Undecided: 13%, Conducted: 10/14-10/19
Rasmussen Reports: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/20
Global Strategy: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/18-10/20
OK
Marriage
Amendment
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Wilson
Research
10/25/2004
Yes 76% 74% 69%
No 24% 24% 22%
1st Place minus 2nd 51 50 47
SurveyUSA: 633 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.8%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/28-10/30/04
Wilson Research: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.4%, Undecided: 9%, Conducted: 10/22-10/24/04
OK
Education
Lottery Act
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Wilson
Research
10/25/2004
Yes 65% 69% 62%
No 35% 29% 28%
1st Place minus 2nd 29 40 34
SurveyUSA: 637 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.8%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/28-10/30/04
Wilson Research: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.4%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 10/22-10/24/04
OK
State Tribal
Gaming Act
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Consumer
Logic
10/27/2004
Wilson
Research
10/25/2004
Yes 59% 60% 51% 57%
No 41% 37% 39% 28%
1st Place minus 2nd 19 23 12 29
SurveyUSA: 621 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/28-10/30/04
Consumer Logic : 753 Registered Voters, MOE: 3.5%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: n/a
Wilson Research: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.4%, Undecided: 15%, Conducted: 10/22-10/24/04
OK
U.S. House
1st Cong District
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/29/2004
Sullivan (R) 60% 59%
Dodd (D)  38% 33%
1st Place minus 2nd 23 26
SurveyUSA: 656 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.8%, Undecided: 8%, Conducted: 10/26-10/28
OR
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/28/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/31/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/30/2004
Davis
Hibbitts
10/29/2004
ARG
Poll
10/28/2004
Research
2000
10/26/2004
CNN/USAT/
Gallup
10/19/2004
Riley
Research
10/14/2004
Kerry (D) 51% 50% 53% 50% 49% 50% 49% 53% 43%
Bush (R)* 47% 47% 46% 44% 43% 46% 43% 45% 48%
1st Place minus 2nd 4 3 7 6 6 4 6 8 -5
SurveyUSA: 687 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.8%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/27
Rasmussen Reports: MOE: 4.5%, Conducted: 10/17 - 10/30
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 5%, Conducted: 10/26 - 10/29
Davis Hibbitts: 608 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.8%, Undecided: 8%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/27
ARG Poll: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/27
Research 2000: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 5%, Conducted: 10/19 - 10/21
CNN/USAT/Gallup: 700 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/15 - 10/18
Riley Research: 400 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.9%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/09 - 10/13
PA
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Quinnipiac
U
11/1/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
11/1/2004
Strategic
Vision
11/1/2004
Zogby
Poll
11/1/2004
CNN/USAT/
Gallup
10/31/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/30/2004
Temple
U
10/30/2004
LA Times
Poll
10/28/2004
ARG
Poll
10/26/2004
Keystone
Poll
10/26/2004
Muhlenberg
College
10/23/2004
West
Chester U
10/6/2004
Kerry (D) 51% 49% 47% 49% 47% 50% 46% 48% 48% 48% 50% 51% 48% 50%
Bush (R)* 49% 48% 47% 47% 46% 46% 50% 46% 47% 48% 47% 46% 46% 43%
1st Place minus 2nd 2 1 0 2 1 4 -4 2 1 0 3 5 2 7
SurveyUSA: 657 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.9%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/31 - 11/01
Quinnipiac U: 909 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.3%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/27 - 10/31
Rasmussen Reports: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/31
Strategic Vision: 801 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/29 - 10/31
Zogby Poll: 601 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/29 - 11/01
CNN/USAT/Gallup: 601 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/28 - 10/31
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/26 - 10/29
Temple U: 1488 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 5%, Conducted: 10/22 - 10/27
LA Times Poll: 568 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/22 - 10/26
ARG Poll: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/23 - 10/25
Keystone Poll: 376 Likely Voters, MOE: 5.1%, Undecided: 3%, Conducted: 10/19 - 10/23
Muhlenberg College: 787 Registered Voters, MOE: 3.5%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/17 - 10/22
West Chester U: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/01 - 10/04
PA
U.S. Senate
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Quinnipiac
U
11/1/2004
Strategic
Vision
11/1/2004
Zogby
Poll
10/31/2004
Temple
U
10/28/2004
West
Chester U
10/28/2004
Keystone
Poll
10/25/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/25/2004
Specter (R) 53% 53% 53% 55% 53% 51% 53% 52% 50%
Hoeffel (D) 42% 35% 33% 33% 32% 29% 34% 29% 32%
1st Place minus 2nd 11 18 20 22 21 22 19 23 18
SurveyUSA: 657 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.9%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/31-11/1
Quinnipiac U: 1022 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.1%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/27-10/31
Strategic Vision: 801 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 8%, Conducted: 10/29-10/31
Zogby Poll: 601 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 10/28-10/31
Temple U: 1488 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 12%, Conducted: 10/22-10/27
West Chester U: 684 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.7%, Undecided: 8%, Conducted: 10/24-10/27
Keystone Poll: 622 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.9%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/19-10/23
Mason Dixon: 800 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.5%, Undecided: 11%, Conducted: 10/19-10/21
RI
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/28/2004
Kerry (D) 59% 54%
Bush (R)* 39% 41%
1st Place minus 2nd 20 13
SurveyUSA: 594 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/27
SC
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/31/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/21/2004
Bush (R)* 58% 54% 55% 53%
Kerry (D) 41% 43% 41% 40%
1st Place minus 2nd 17 11 14 13
SurveyUSA: 635 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/29 - 10/31
Rasmussen Reports: MOE: 4.5%, Conducted: 10/24 - 10/30
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/19 - 10/20
SC
U.S. Senate
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/25/2004
McLaughlin
10/29/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/24/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/20/2004
DeMint (R) 54% 52% 48% 47% 50%
Tenenbaum (D) 44% 39% 40% 43% 44%
1st Place minus 2nd 10 13 8 4 6
SurveyUSA: 564 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.2%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/22-10/24
McLaughlin: 400 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.9%, Undecided: 12%, Conducted: 10/26-10/28
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/19-10/20
Rasmussen Reports: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.5%, Undecided: n/a, Conducted: 10/20
TN
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/31/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/25/2004
U
Tennessee
10/24/2004
Middle TN
State U
10/19/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/1/2004
Bush (R)* 57% 58% 53% 54% 50% 49%
Kerry (D) 42% 40% 41% 37% 39% 43%
1st Place minus 2nd 14 18 12 17 11 6
SurveyUSA: 629 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/28 - 10/30
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 5%, Conducted: 10/19 - 10/21
U Tennessee: 656 Registered Voters, MOE: 3.8%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/07 - 10/20
Middle TN State U: 624 Registered Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 9%, Conducted: 10/04 - 10/15
Rasmussen Reports: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 5.0%, Undecided: 5%, Conducted: 09/16 - 09/29
TX
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/29/2004
Bush (R)* 61% 59%
Kerry (D) 38% 37%
1st Place minus 2nd 23 22
SurveyUSA: 602 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/26 - 10/28
VA
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/30/2004
Media
General
10/31/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/31/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/27/2004
Bush (R)* 54% 51% 49% 50% 50%
Kerry (D) 45% 47% 40% 45% 44%
1st Place minus 2nd 9 4 9 5 6
SurveyUSA: 606 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.1%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/27 - 10/29
Media General: 751 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 9%, Conducted: 10/20 - 10/26
Rasmussen Reports: MOE: 4.5%, Conducted: 10/17 - 10/30
Mason Dixon: 625 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 5%, Conducted: 10/22 - 10/25
WA
President
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Strategic
Vision
11/1/2004
Rasmussen
Reports
10/31/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/28/2004
Moore
Information
10/5/2004
Kerry (D) 53% 51% 51% 53% 50% 47%
Bush (R)* 46% 47% 45% 44% 45% 45%
1st Place minus 2nd 7 4 6 9 5 2
SurveyUSA: 622 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 1%, Conducted: 10/29 - 10/31
Strategic Vision: 801 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/29 - 10/31
Rasmussen Reports: MOE: 4.5%, Conducted: 10/24 - 10/30
Mason Dixon: 800 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/25 - 10/26
Moore Information: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 5%, Conducted: 10/03 - 10/04
WA
Governor
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Strategic
Vision
11/1/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/27/2004
Elway
Poll
10/17/2004
Mellman
Group
10/6/2004
Rossi (R) 49% 51% 44% 43% 38% 39%
Gregoire (D) 49% 45% 47% 48% 45% 51%
1st Place minus 2nd 0 6 -3 -5 -7 -12
SurveyUSA: 620 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 4%, Conducted: 10/29-10/31
Strategic Vision: 801 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 9%, Conducted: 10/29-10/31
Mason Dixon: 800 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/25-10/26
Elway Poll: 405 Registered Voters, MOE: 5.0%, Undecided: 17%, Conducted: 10/14-10/16
Mellman Group: 600 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 10%, Conducted: 9/29-10/3
WA
U.S. Senate
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
Strategic
Vision
11/1/2004
Mason
Dixon
10/27/2004
Elway
Poll
10/17/2004
Murray (D) 55% 51% 50% 53% 54%
Nethercutt (R) 43% 45% 42% 39% 37%
1st Place minus 2nd 12 6 8 14 17
SurveyUSA: 622 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 0%, Conducted: 10/29-10/31
Strategic Vision: 801 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.0%, Undecided: 8%, Conducted: 10/29-10/31
Mason Dixon: 800 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.5%, Undecided: 7%, Conducted: 10/25-10/26
Elway Poll: 405 Registered Voters, MOE: 5.0%, Undecided: 9%, Conducted: 10/14-10/16
WA
Attorney General
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
11/1/2004
McKenna (R) 54% 49%
Senn (D) 44% 43%
1st Place minus 2nd 10 6
SurveyUSA: 617 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 2%, Conducted: 10/29-10/31/04
WA
U.S. House
5th Cong District
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/30/2004
McMorris (R) 60% 55%
Barbieri (D) 40% 38%
1st Place minus 2nd 19 17
SurveyUSA: 627 Likely Voters, MOE: 4.0%, Undecided: 6%, Conducted: 10/27-10/29
WA
U.S. House
8th Cong District
Actual
Returns
11/2/2004
SurveyUSA
for Media
10/27/2004
GSSR
10/4/2004
Reichert (R)  52% 49% 37%
Ross (D) 47% 43% 47%
1st Place minus 2nd 5 6 -10
SurveyUSA: 664 Likely Voters, MOE: 3.9%, Undecided: 8%, Conducted: 10/24-10/26
GSSR: 500 Likely Voters, MOE: n/a, Undecided: 14%, Conducted: 9/29-10/3